Are we doing the Sharks vs. Hawks thing?
Taking a look at the two rebuilds.
Over the weekend, Ben Pope of the Chicago Sun-Times wrote an article comparing the Chicago Blackhawks rebuild to the San Jose Sharks rebuild. Given how close both teams are in their timelines, it makes sense to draw comparisons. Both teams also drafted franchise-changing 1C’s—Connor Bedard for the Hawks and Macklin Celebrini for the Sharks. It’s an easy comparison to make, but both franchises have their issues.
As of this writing (Sunday night), the Sharks sit two points out of a wild-card spot with 58 points. They’re above .500 (.547) but have a -17 goal differential. And let’s be real, being above .500 in the NHL doesn’t mean a whole lot. Only six teams aren’t above .500 (including Chicago). But because the Sharks are close to a playoff spot, pundits are ready to declare the Sharks as buyers. And it’s likely they are, considering Atermi Panaren has popped off on the Sharks’ radar.
The Chicago Blackhawks held a wild-card spot early in the season and have struggled to generate offense as of late. They sit in seventh place in the Central Division with 51 points and an ugly -30 goal differential. Barring an incredible run, it’s safe to say the Hawks aren’t playoff contenders.
Davidson’s Rebuild
The Hawks’ current rebuild started in 2022. At least, that’s their current iteration. Let’s not forget that the Blackhawks front office wrote a letter to fans declaring the start of a rebuild in 2020, only for Stan Bowman to jettison that plan for a retool and Stanley Cup aspirations. We don’t need to revisit what followed. The Sharks’ rebuild started in 2022 following a failed retool and the hiring of GM Mike Grier.
Kyle Davidson’s plan (and I’m not here to argue if a full-tear-down rebuild was the right idea) included accumulating a stockpile of draft picks. Grier did the same in San Jose. Where the two rebuilds begin to diverge is in the players they drafted. Davidson and his scouting department identified picks based on singular traits. Small and fast (Frank Nazar, Oliver Moore, and throw in Nick Lardis here) or sizable players (Sacha Boisvert, Anton Frondell, Nathan Behm).
Kyle Davidson identifies players he likes or a specific type and goes after them.
Davidson has also drafted players to build from the back out. The forwards he drafted could make for a solid middle six. Sam Rinzel, Artyom Levshunov, and Kevin Korchinski are intriguing defensemen that he drafted. We don’t know if Anton Frondell or Roman Kantserov will be top-six players, but he hasn’t really drafted those types of players. Connor Bedard fell into his lap, and Frank Nazar isn’t a guarantee at 2C.
There’s also little shift from the plan (which isn’t a bad thing, right Bowman?). The only “shifting” Davidson did was when he boldly proclaimed that the Hawks were ready to take a step forward in 2024. He signed a plethora of veteran players meant to help the team improve in the standings. The Blackhawks finished the 2024-25 season with 61 points—31st overall.
Grier’s Rebuild
The Sharks have focused on drafting potential top-six forwards. William Ecklund was drafted before Grier took over. Will Smith, Michael Misa, and Igor Chernyshov (who looks interesting) are all players who could become solid top-six players. And of course, Macklin Celebrini fell into Grier’s lap in 2024.
The Sharks arguably signed better veteran players to surround Celebrini and their youth. Tyler Toffoli was signed in the summer of 2024 following Celebrini’s selection to San Jose. Toffoli and Celebrini have a 60.5% goals share and a 41.8% expected goals share at 5v5 through 116 games played together. Bedard has infamously gone through a carousel of players.
The glaring issue for the Sharks is on their backend. Prospect-wise, Sam Dickinson could hit, but it’s doubtful he’s the future No. 1. Their blueline is currently manned by veteran players and some plugs. Dickinson is currently slotted on the third pairing as he is still developing.
The trade for Kiefer Sherwood may have been premature. Two second-round picks (and a 25-year-old Cole Clayton) were given up for depth. The talk about acquiring Panarin might be concerning for some San Jose fans. Panarin will only go to a team if he’s signed an extension, and although it’s hard to see his production drop dramatically, he is 34 years old.
The Sharks sit dead last in expected goals share at 5v5 (44.23%) and 24th in actual goals share at 5v5 (46.61%). San Jose is also seventh in 5v5 shooting percentage (10.51%), which will regress towards the mean. The moves that the Sharks make ahead of the trade deadline will be interesting, as it gives insight into where Grier sees this team.
And oh hey, look at that. The Blackhawks host the Sharks tonight at 7:30 pm CT. There’s your preview.