Game Preview: Blackhawks @ Islanders 12/12/2024
The Blackhawks take on an Islanders team that can't score or defend well. In other words, the Blackhawks should be able to get a W.
I don't want to be here. You don't want to be here. So let's get right into it.
Photo Cred: NHL Out of Context
The Islanders
The Islanders suck. This team lacks defensive depth, plays sloppy, and they have no offense. The Islanders are 6th in the Metro with an 11-12-7 record. You could argue that injuries hurt their offense, but I counter that with exhibit A: their defense.
Patrick Roy changed the Islanders' defensive zone coverage from a Box +1 to a man-on-man to jumpstart one of the league's worst defense last year. The problem with man-on-man, just like we saw with the Rangers, is that it can be very confusing. Against the Kings, a 3-1 loss, the Islanders' defense got confused about their assignments in the DZ numerous times.
In that game, New York handed over 16 high-danger chances at 5v5. The Islanders rank 22 in high-danger chances allowed and 21 in expected goals against. That's bad, but not horrible. The Islanders get scored on at a rate of 1.88 goals per 60 minutes. That ranks 3rd in the league. So what gives? How can their defense look that bad but their numbers don't reflect?
Goaltending.
Despite having a 5v5 expected goals against of 59.19, they have an actual goals against of 47. Ilya Sorokin ranks 15 overall in GAA at 2.58 and he has a .912 SV%, which ranks 11. Ilya's record is 8-8-4 on the season and doesn't reflect how well he plays. However, the Islanders can't rely on goaltending to bail out a shitty defense.
Their defense might be sloppy and bad, but what on earth is going on with their offense?
Ranked 25th in 5v5 goals per 60 (2.12) and 27th in shots for per 60 (25.72), this Islanders team can't score. If they were healthy, Mathew Barzal and Anthony Ducalir would make this a dangerous top-6. But those two are on LTIR.
The Islanders have the pieces to generate goals. On the second line, Anders Lee leads the team in points with 24, Kyle Palmeri has 23, and centering them is Brock Nelson with 18 points. But their 5v5 numbers are horrendous. A 36.56 Corsi and a 34.80 xG% is... yikes.
Their first line doesn't look much better. Maxim Tsyplakov, Bo Horvat, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau each have 16, 18, and 13 points respectively. At 5v5 they have a 45.68 Corsi and a xG% of 37.15. Not great.
And you don't have to look hard at their special teams. Their PK is ranked 32nd and their PP is 31st.
So, how are the Blackhawks going to take advantage of this? By doing exactly what they did against the Rangers.
The Blackhawks
This is a winnable game.
All the Blackhawks have to do is play like they did on Monday night. Activate the D in the OZ and generate confusion in the Islanders' man-on-man system. Create chaos.
To be realistic, this team doesn't have the speed to be all that "chaotic." There are enough old guys around to label this team a country club.
But they have Connor Bedard.
Bedard needs to get going. I know. You're sick and tired of me saying that every single post. But it's true. He only had 1 shot on goal in the last two games. Tonight might be a good opportunity for Bedard to score at least one goal.
But man, that first line isn't inspiring. I'm tired of seeing Philipp Kurashev on the top line and I still have no idea why Ilya Mikheyev is up there too (just one idea). These guys have 9:37 5v5 time together, a 31.82 Corsi, and an expected goals share of 48.98%. I'll give Anders Sorensen this, at least he's consistent.
Mikheyev is good at one thing. Being fast. The idea with Mikheyev is for him to get the puck first and to get it to Bedard. Kurashev is there to do... something. The Islanders don't take him seriously enough to consider him a threat. But throw in an activating defensemen and the Islanders might have a mental breakdown.
Downhill Catch & Shoot: Here's a play from Jack Han's book. D1 passes the puck to D2, who activates and passes to F3 (Bedard). Most of Bedard's goals came off the left circle last year. This is where he should shoot from.
Last year, Bedard took 41% of his shots on the left side, had a 19% shooting percentage there, and scored 66% of his 5v5 goals there. This season he has taken 77% of his shots on the right side with 23% on the left.
The other piece to the puzzle is motion plays. The way to exploit the Islanders' man-on-man is to create a lot of movement. Throw in an active D and a motioning Bedard, and you have the recipe for a goal.
It'll be on Bedard to solve Sorokin.
Let's Go Hawks.