Game Preview: Blackhawks vs Jets 12/07/2024
A preview of Blackhawks new head coach Anders Sorensen taking on the Jets in Chicago.
Surprise! It's the rare appearance of a game preview. The Blackhawks are taking on the Jets tomorrow afternoon. And would you look at that, we have a coaching change. I don't know about you, but there's a weird feeling in the air surrounding this Hawks team. It's either some weird juju or my crockpot is cooking my birreria meat funny.
The Jets
The Jets firmly hold the number 2 spot in the Central thanks to a recent slump. 4-6-0 in their last 10 and a nice 4-game losing streak. The Jets snapped that losing streak last night in a 3-2 OT win against the Sabres. This is most likely nothing more than a brief slump, which could continue when they face the Hawks. Or maybe they can take advantage of an easy weekend (Hawks Saturday, Columbus Sunday).
The top line struggled in recent games, and some of that has to do with Mark Scheifele playing below expectations. In the last 8 games, Scheifele has 1 goal and 4 assists. But it's the line as a whole that has failed to produce enough offense. The Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi line has a 49.14 Corsi at 5v5 and a 51.03 xG%. There's some recency bias in this because, before the losing streak, this line scored at a rate of 3.42 goals/60. In their last 9 games, this line only scored 2.35 goals/60.
Another area that is a weakness for this team is defending on the rush. As things stand, this team lacks defensive depth and it's hurting them:
https://twitter.com/HockeyDaily365/status/1864139514165211410
During their 4-game losing streak, the Jets allowed 8 goals off the rush. Part of that is due to Dylan Samberg sitting out, which forces players like Hayden Fleury to play outside their comfort level. The Jets like their d-men to pinch in the OZ, which is compounding their blueline problems. When players, like Dylan DeMelo, aren't the fastest, this leaves them open for ugly chances against.
The above is from Jack Han's 2024 Hockey Tactics book. This is how the Jets forecheck. D2 pinches into the half wall while F2 covers space up high. The problem is that teams figured out how to counter this and generate odd-man rushes. Their aggressive pinching gets them into trouble as of late.
This leads me to how the Hawks can take advantage.
The Hawks
This will be our first look at Anders Sorensen as an NHL head coach (interim). He faces a team that just set a historical record at the start of an NHL season but also a team amid a slump. Sorensen has a young generational talent who is desperate for more offense. The Hawks can win this by taking advantage of one weakness in the Jets.
The problem is that the Hawks need to get over their shitty breakouts in order to take advantage.
The Hawks are horrible at breaking out. A coaching change isn't going to fix that. Their breakouts are an area that the Jets can take advantage of with their aggressive pinching. Chicago typically breaks out through the strongside.
But it's also an area that the Hawks could take advantage of as well.
https://twitter.com/dtroysmith/status/1863426229279334699
The Blackhawks' struggle on breakouts is because of poor passing and slow players. Taking advantage of the Jets forecheck, like the Predators and Dallas did, would require some quick fixes across the lineup. But there are two players who can take advantage of the Jets' tendency to give up rush-chances.
Alex Vlasic is solid on breakout passes, particularly when he connects a stretch pass. Vlasic can easily take advantage of any aggressive pinching by the Jets defensemen, all he needs is a forward to be ready for the pass. That brings me to Connor Bedard.
Under Richardson, Bedard played conservatively. Sure, he actually looks much better this year in the DZ. But what if Sorensen lets Bedard cheat up? This would require a defensively smart linemate (Teuvo Teravainen) who can cover him. Bedard could generate an odd-man rush with Philipp Kurashev, enter the zone, and create a scoring chance off the rush.
My concern, as seen in the above lineup, is that Kurashev's time as a top-six player has passed. Some of the beat writers also have Kurashev slotted in as the No. 1 center. Bedard being on the wing makes sense, especially with the above tactic. I just don't think Kurashev is the right player to facilitate that.
This won't be easy for the Hawks, but hey, they took the Jets to OT in their last 2 meetings and in their last 4 meetings the final score was only a 1 goal difference. It would be really nice for Sorensen and everyone if they get a win.
Let's Go Hawks.