Game Preview: Hawks @ Flames 10/15/2024
It just burnt down on its own.
Hockey is a weird sport. Teams that should start hot start cold and teams that should be bad start good.
The Calgary Flames are one of those teams that’s having a better start than they should. It’s also a team that the Hawks have a realistic chance of winning against. Not that wins matter other than job security for Luke and our collective sanity as Hawk fans. Some of them are still rooting for the tank to roll on. Look, tonight there’s one team that needs to worry about “tank wins” and it isn’t the Hawks.
The Flames
The Flames have an unsustainable 3-0 start to the season. It’s unsustainable for the long term, not for tonight. At 5v5, Calgary has a 12.86 shot percentage and a .942 save percentage, which is good enough for a 1.071 PDO. Since it’s only 3 games, the Flames will probably get a few more good games before they regress to the mean.
Reading about the Flames early start reminds me a lot of when the Hawks started strong under Luke Richardson’s first season as coach.
Calgary is predicted to finish around 78 points, which is about the same as they faired last season. For a team that’s rebuilding, they might want to be a little worse. Their lineup looks pretty bad, but I don’t think it’s bad enough to bottom out. And Hawk fans know a thing or two about bottoming out.
They’re kind of deep on the wing, and I’m using that term loosely. Jonathan Huberdeau is having a strong start to the season. Over 3 games he has 5 points, 3 goals and 2 assists. Huberdeau is currently their best winger, but beyond him, the Flames lack a high-caliber winger.
Sure, Andrei Kuzemenko, Anthony Mantha, Blake Coleman, and Connor Zary aren’t bad by any means, and you can really plug and play them anywhere. Samuel Honzek is 3 games deep in his NHL debut and has no points to show for it. But the question mark surrounding another high-caliber winger isn’t a problem for them tonight.
Things look more bleak down the middle. Nazim Kadri played great last year and hasn’t been bad to start. But realistically, who else do they have? Martin Pospisil as your second-line center is a bit of a reach. Mikael Backlund is a decent two-center and fits nicely on the third line. Again, these are concerns for the long-term.
On defense, they lack depth. MacKenzie Weegar and Danill Miromanov for your top pair have an expected goals share of 39.63. Rasmus Andersson playing on the second pair with Kevin Bahl has been working out really well. They have a 54.94 xG% and have been on the ice for 6 goals for and 1 against.
On paper, the Flames look pretty bad in net with Dustin Wolf and Dan Vladar (who’s had 2 of the three starts). Vladar has a .880 SV% and has allowed 6 goals past him while Wolf has a .925 SV% and allowed 3.
This is a team that really shouldn’t have the start that it’s having. I’m really not buying that this is a team that will beat the Hawks but they certainly can.
The Hawks
Let’s talk about the lineup real quick. Those quick to Lukas Reichel’s defense probably notice the fourth straight healthy scratch. Here’s what Luke Richardson had to say about that:
Richardson on Reichel and Allan still being scraches:
"We're playing really well as a team right now, so there's not a lot of changes going on and there's not a lot of guys that are banged up, so you've got to bide your time and wait. I'm sure at some point we might have to have a discussion about a plan for them to get into games, whether it be here or down below, but we haven't come to that point yet."
-Ben Pope via X (@BenPopeCST)
Of course, you might wonder why Ryan Donato gets the scratch if Luke is trying to keep the lines the same.
Back to Reichel…. Look, I’m still optimistic for this kid. But him being scratched isn’t worth getting worked up at this point. Whenever he does get to play again he’ll have to really prove that he’s worth a spot in the line-up. Clearly, he’s only on the roster because Kyle Davidson doesn’t want to risk losing him on waivers.
Nolan Allan being scratched does irk me. Even though TJ Brodie played a better game recently, I’d much rather see more of the young blood in the lineup than these slow farts.
Speaking of slow farts, I see that Alec Martinez and Seth Jones are back together on the top pairing. I know that Luke is trying to “spread things out” with Alex Vlasic being on the second pairing. Why not just start Vlasic with Jones since Luke is going to do that mid-game anyway? And again, wasn’t Martinez brought on to play with the young?
For the forwards, a couple of things to watch. Connor Bedard had a solid game against the Oilers, but he needs to start generating more shots. I would love to see him use his best tool tonight. 5 points in 3 games is nice, and he’s looked solid. But looking at the analytics, it’s not where I’d hope for him to be. At even strength, he’s been hemmed in his zone a lot with a 42.74 Corsi and a 37.27 xG%. In 3 games he has 5 shots on goal at even strength and an individual xGF of .96.
Quick pause, 3 games is still a tiny sample size. Real tiny.
The other thing to watch is Philipp Kurashev and his line. Kurashev has been surprising over the past 3 games. Surprising if you thought he was relying on Bedard to generate points (me). The Hall-Kurashev-Bertuzzi line has only generated a 30.52 xG% at even strength, and that’s probably because Tyler Bertuzzi has had a slow start (just like he did last year). Without Bertuzzi, Taylor Hall and Kurashev only put up a 37.18 xG% at even strength and an 81.81 xG% in all situations.
This is a game the Hawks are more than capable of winning.
Trash Bin
For all things not Hawks related.
Vans - Valomerkki
This is a great tour video from the Vans Europe crew with some gnarly tricks and some sick spots. Simon Hallberg with a nasty 50-50 down a kinked rail. Willow with a monster boardslide. Chris Pfanner with a kickflip melon grab. A lot of talent in this one. And look at how sketchy this spot is:
I can’t say that I love the song choice, but everything else was done perfectly. It’s really cool to see a tight-knit group like these guys. I loved the recordings and stories from the tour that gave a little context to some of the spots they were skating. Like trying to stay quiet so the cops don’t kick them out of spot or trying to gap to boardslide a rail that has a hole in it.
It’s a good one.
ROUGH CUT: Gabriel Summers “No White Flag” Zero Part
This makes one of the more impressive parts somehow even more impressive. This really goes to show how much determination Gabby has to land his tricks. He took some gnarly slams. I know this is a Blackhawks-focused blog, but if you want to see how hard it is for skateboarders to land tricks, the Rough Cut series on Thrasher is a must.
Out.