Game Preview: Hawks vs Red Wings 11/6/2024
Can the Hawks make it 3 games in a row?
Stats are from Natural Stat Trick unless otherwise noted.
This was written during Monday, so there are no line updates.
Tonight is one of those nights where you’ll hear about how this was once one of the greatest rivalries in hockey if not all of sports.
You’ll also hear plenty about how Patrick Kane should still be a Hawk (which I consider myself to be one of those heathens).
No matter what you believe in, you can’t ignore the fact that we are getting another night of booger hockey. Booger hockey being when two bad teams play each other.
The Red Wings
Mandatory reading: Max Bultman
You can add the Red Wings to the list of rebuilding teams that you hope the Hawks don’t turn into (alongside the Sabres, Montreal, Edmonton, etc.). But lets be real, this is a step all rebuilding teams go through. A terrifying existential crisis abounds when your team should be exiting that rebuild stage.
Detroit is 5-5-1 through their first 11 games, good enough for .500. With a 2-1 win against the Sabres on Saturday, the Wings are going to be looking to build some momentum and string together a back-to-back victory against the Hawks. Detroit has a -6 goal differential, good enough for 6th in the Atlantic.
One of the Wings’ areas of weakness has been at 5v5. As of Monday (as I’m typing this while eating microwaved rice), the Red Wings sit at 30th for goals-per-60 at 1.68. They also have an unsustainably bad shooting percentage of 7.28%.
The below chart shows shot attempts for on the x-axis and shot attempts against on the y-axis.
Lucas Raymond leads the team in points with 11 and Alex DeBrincat is right behind him with 9. Center Dylan Larkin leads the team with 7 goals, 2 of those coming on the powerplay on Saturday’s game. Tying Larkin in points is Patrick Kane who has 8.
The powerplay is where the Red Wings are going to look to score. With a 26.5% powerplay, the Wings are 8th in the league. Their powerplay isn’t anything to sneeze at, as Larkin proved last Saturday.
On the blueline, Moritz Seider has 7 points and his top-pairing partner, Simon Edvinsson, has 4 points. Let’s look at their shot attempt rate, per 60 minutes, they have 60.62 shot attempts for and 63.06 attempts against. Things look ugly past this top pair.
Jeff Petry and Ben Chiarot make up the second pair and have a disgusting 36 Corsi at 5v5. They’ve had 41.06 shot attempts for and 73 against in 105 minutes of ice time together.
Detroit has a problem getting stuck in their own end for extended periods of time. They have an xGA per 60 of 2.66 and they give up 32.76 5v5 shots on goal per 60. which is 30th in the league.
In net, Cam Talbot has a .923 SV% and Alex Lyon has a 918 SV%. Both tendies have played 5 games with Talbot winning 3 and Lyon only winning 2.
The Hawks
If there’s a night to string together 3 wins in a row, tonights the night.
But there are some hurdles the Hawks are going to have to get over. Namely, offense.
The Hawks can take advantage of the Wings’ weakness of getting stuck in their own zone. The Hawks proved they can sustain OZ pressure, they just need to be consistent doing it. Currently, they sit at 23rd overall in expected 5v5 goals/60 with 2.36 and they have a low shooting percentage of 8.04%.
Part of that is Connor Bedard having some puck luck troubles. With a shooting percentage of 8.57%, Connor has taken 64 shot attempts (12th overall), 35 shots on goal (2nd overall), and has an individual expected goals of 3.96 (4th overall at 5v5).
So don’t you worry. Bedard’s goals are coming.
On defense, they’ll be facing a team that struggles at 5v5 offense, so there shouldn’t be any excuses to get stuck in the DZ.
Where the Hawks have to be careful is on the kill. They currently rank 22nd with a 75% PK. Against a Wings team with a solid PP, they’ll have to be tight. This is an area that could do the Hawks in, especially if certain players continue to take dumb penalties. By the way, Connor Murphy has 9 penalties this season.
Beyond being on goal watch for Connor, let’s see Lukas Reichel continue to play solid. And I’m going to be honest, there’s not much else to be on the lookout for.
Out.