It happened. The Blackhawks had a market correction night in a 6-3 loss to the Winnipeg Jets. I didn’t expect it to happen with Spencer Knight in net, especially against a team that had a league-low 39.87% expected goals share (xG%). But it happened. Anyway, not a whole lot to uncover here. The Hawks had some good numbers, Knight let a couple of soft ones past him, and there were some defensive miscues.
Surprisingly, the Blackhawks actually had one of their better games analytically. They owned puck possession metrics (53.26% Corsi) and scoring chances (51.69 xG%). What killed them were some bad mistakes and poor breakouts.
As pointed out by LBR from Second City Hockey, Louis Crevier’s ill-timed pinch in the neutral zone cost the Blackhawks the second goal for the Jets. Rather than pinch when Crevier had support from a forward, Crevier pinched without. That’s why I won’t hold this loss against Spencer Knight, even though he had an .813 SV%. I also can’t hold this against Crevier, too much either. The Hawks are trying to be more aggressive in the neutral zone; this is the price of a young player and an aggressive system.
The Hawks struggled with breakouts; however, I was very surprised to see that they owned the majority of puck possession in every period. The weakest period was the second, in which they owned only 40.76% of expected goals. An improvement from the last game was their ability to take shot attempts from within the house. Looking at the heatmap below, you can see how often the Hawks took the puck to Connor Hellebuyck. Andre Burakovsky’s goal deserves a mention here.
All three Hawks goals were right in front of one of the best goaltenders in the world. They didn’t take low-percentage perimeter shots; they got to the middle of the ice and scored. Frank Nazar and Connor Bedard both had five shot attempts at 5-on-5, and Bedard had himself an expected goals share of 74.97%. Bedard’s numbers have been pretty brutal considering the team he’s on, but he’s been in the positive as of late, and that’s encouraging (hat trick aside).
The Hawks take on the Edmonton Oilers tomorrow on Saturday at 9 pm CT.