Wounded Tusk: Mammoth Goaltending Concerns
Looking at the Mammy's recent slide.
There are a few surprising teams in the Western Conference this season. The Anaheim Ducks seem like they’re taking a serious step forward, the Chicago Blackhawks have taken noticeable steps with their developing players, and the Utah Mammoth have made a strong start to the season. Of those three, I think the Ducks and the Mammoth have a serious case for playoff contention.
But it’s the Mammoth I want to sit on for a second.
Important caveat—I don’t regularly watch Mammoth games. The last time I saw them play was a 6-4 loss to the Montreal Canadiens. So I don’t have the credibility of the eye test here. But even eyes can be stupid.
As of today, the Mammoth have slipped in the standings to the second wild card spot in the West. Utah is in the midst of a three-game losing streak, and with 18 points in the standings, the Minnesota Wild are eyeing their spot (who have 17 points). Utah’s .976 PDO suggests some puck luck has gone the wrong way, and some market correction will likely place them back in the top three in the Central Division. Their 10.08 SH% ranks 11th, and their team save percentage of .875 has them tied for dead last. Let’s dig a little further into that number. Is this goaltending or defense?
Utah ranks eighth in puck possession with a 52.39% Corsi, their expected goals against rate ranks 14th lowest, and their actual goals against rate ranks 28th lowest. So they’re giving up more goals per 60 than expected. Their high danger goals against rate ranks 10th lowest, and their high danger chances against ranks 19th lowest.
Utah’s defense isn’t horrible. Looking at the chart from Hockey Viz you can see how they limit perimeter shots and have some difficulty with high danger goals. Utah plays a very tight and structured zone coverage. Players clog the middle of the ice and block shots. As observed in their game against Montreal. In fact, Utah leads the league in fewest unblocked shot attempts against per 60.
Which leads me to look in between the pipes. Karel Vejmelka has started 11 games and has a 2.91 GAA and a .881 SV%. Backup goaltender Vitek Venecek has played in five games, has a 2.81 GAA, and a .875 SV%.
Their last three losses have a combined 15 goals against and seven goals for. There’s some concern regarding offense, too, but I’d be more concerned about letting in that many goals. Number nerds may take solace in the fact that there could be a market correction due to their goaltending, but without watching their goaltending on a nightly basis, I can’t say with confidence how either goaltender looks regarding form and structure.
Can the Mammoth make the playoffs with goaltending issues? Sure. But it’s an area they may have to start looking at once they crack the postseason for the first time as a franchise.