Connor Bedard and Lukas Reichel, how are they looking?
A look at Bedard through 9 games and Reichel at 5 games played.
Back to reality.
Spending your day floating belly up in the Caribbean Sea is one hell of a way to forget about the Blackhawks. Like a great dream, that week has come and gone. With the return to real life comes the return to the Hawks season.
Maybe it’s me not being plugged into what Hawk fans are saying these days but it seems like there are some really upset fans. Now, I’m not saying that you should accept losing or anything like that. Far from it. I hate sounding like the guy complaining about what the fans are saying and how no one understands anything.
Don’t be that guy.
But, I have thoughts and I must share them. There’s a bit of overreacting so far and we haven’t even hit 10 games yet. Before the start of the regular season, I wrote about my expectations for the Hawks’ first 10 games using the HAM method. 3-5-2 was the record I was expecting. Anything more than that would be seen as great. So let’s check in on that. Where are we at on the HAM?
Compared to the last time around, I moved the Hawks up with “As Expected.” There are still some concerns but not enough to really make me actually concerned. Yet. Luke Richardson stays put because it’s still too early in the season. My biggest worry was if what we saw during the preseason was any indication of how the Hawks were going to look. And let’s be honest, the Hawks look better than last year, even if the record is worse.
A lot of my concerns about Richardson won’t manifest themselves this early. I’m concerned about prospect development and we just won’t know about that for some time. Even if you aren’t fans of his “tough-love” approach. We don’t know.
As for the fanbase, represented by MeatWad, they’re leaning toward Panic mode, but that’s mostly because Twitter will always have the loud minority seem like the majority. I don’t even want to look through Facebook comments.
Anyways, here are some talking points through our first 10 91.
Bedard
Relax people.
It’s only 9 games in and people were starting to sweat that “the dam hadn’t burst yet.”
Yes, Connor Bedard needs to find more ways to score than his beautiful wrist shot. Yes, Bedard needs to shoot the puck more like the NHL’s elite goal scorers. And of course, there are questions about the future on if Bedard can be a consistent 50-plus goal scorer.
It’s 9 games. It’s Connor Bedard.
At 5v5, Bedard has a 48.18 Corsi and has a 53.95 xG%. With 3 goals, 6 assists, 32 shots on goal, and 58 shot attempts you would think that there isn’t much more to do than wait.
Across the league, Bedard isn’t near the top of shots or shot attempts per 60 min. And again, 9 games is a stupid small sample size. Connor currently has a shot per 60 rate of 10.5 and 19.04 shot attempts per 60. Of players who have more than 130 min. of ice time so far, that ranks 23rd and 29th respectively.
Auston Matthews is at 13.33 shots/60 and 27.61 shot attempts/60 and sits at no. 2 for both.
All Bedard needs to do is shoot more.
Oh, and I think we can all agree that he’s looked much better defensively. Not perfect. But it’s a big step forward.
Reichel
Everyone’s favorite player.
The Lukas Reichel question is pretty divisive among the fan base. You have those who are wanting this kid traded for anything that breathes, and those who are holding onto sheer hope that this kid is a future linemate of Bedard.
I’m still optimistic on this kid, but it’s quickly waning.
Reichel had every chance last year to prove on a very bad team that he’s all that and a bag of chips or whatever Germans eat. It was a roster that featured a Selke finalist in Jason Dickinson for crying out loud. Reichel managed to play himself back to Rockford. The numbers don’t look good either.
Out of forwards with at least 200 minutes of ice time last year, Reichel’s 5v5 xG% of 36.72 ranked 456 of 462 players.
That’s not good. In fact, the only other Hawks that did worse were Cole Guttman and Andreas Athanasiou.
And then there are those “flashes.” You know the ones I’m talking about.
It’s the plays that seem to come out of nowhere and give hope that “hey, this kid is really damn good.” But then you don’t see them again for the rest of the game.
So far, Reichel has only played in 5 games, which is a very tiny sample size.
At 5v5 his Corsi is a 44.12 and an xG% of 38.92. Now, that’s been mostly spent with his beautiful linemates. His individual numbers look a little better with 3 points, 10 shots on goal, 12 shot attempts, and an individual xG% of .70.
So while the on-ice numbers don’t look great, the eye test and the individual numbers suggest that he’s playing better.
Or maybe this is just one giant flash before he goes cold again.
Either way, the Hawks aren’t playing for anything. Let’s see what this kid can do on a top-6 role.
The Week Ahead
I think it’s about time we check in on the prospects and a look at Rockford. We have this guy playing for them now:
That’s Artyom Levshunov, no. 55, with his first professional point after a nice retrieval.
I’ll probably post something this week to look at how the younglings are doing. And speaking of our War Piglets, they play today (Oct. 27 at 2pm CT) and Nov. 1 and 2. Click here for their schedule.
For our Hawks, Monday night starts with the Avalanche who are on a 4-game winning streak as they try to right their goalie-ship. Halloween will take the Hawks over to San Jose before they play Saturday in LA. Sunday caps their 5 game road trip in Anaheim. Basically the circus-road trip.
No. Despite how close they are to me this week I won’t be going to a game. Saved that for the Winter Classic this year. Which I’m pumped for.
Also, I haven’t done a horror movie review in a while… and Halloween is this week. Time to stop slacking.
Let’s Go Hawks.
Only doing the first 9 instead of 10. Why? Well, game 10 is Monday night. By then, I think work and real life is going to slap me in the face as a welcome back from vacation.