Hawk Thoughts: How are the Blackhawks Looking 21 games in?
A look at how the Blackhawks are doing compared to my expectations.
I figured the Thanksgiving mark would be a good time to step back and revisit the Hawks Anxiety Meter (HAM) and see how the team is doing. Below is where we were last time which was 10 games in the season. Small sample size and the start of a new season. Not a whole lot to change expectations. Anything around a 3-5-2 record would be as expected and the Hawks finished those 10 games with a 3-6-1 record.
If you want an explanation of the little pictures, here you go. After those first 10 games, I didn't move Luke Richardson because I wasn't sure if my small concerns would grow into real ones. Kyle Davidson stayed put because we didn't know if his personnel moves worked. The Blackhawks looked better than last season and I also factored in the fact that a lot of the new players needed time to gel. As for my perceived reaction of the fanbase (represented by Meatwad), they seemed to be leaning towards Panic. As for Rockford, things were looking good because it was the start of a new season with new players.
How are things looking now?
It's easy to overreact and have a knee-jerk reaction when things aren't going well. But there are concerns. I'll talk about Rockford in a separate post.
Oh, and before we start, calling for Luke's head, despite valid concerns, is an overreaction.
Luke
The 2024 season was supposed to be Luke's first go at improving things with a "real" roster. Giving Luke a pass for a bad record was supposed to be out of the picture because now he has "talent" to play around with. From Kyle's perspective, this would be a good opportunity to evaluate his final year on contract before he could either part ways with Luke or extend him on that team option 4th year.
Through 21 games played, the Hawks are 7-12-2. Last year they were 7-14-0 through 211.
I've been on Luke's side since his first season as head coach. I even defended him a bit recently amid the hate he's catching on the internet. But those small annoyances that I had about him have turned into concerns. While I like Luke and think he's an ok coach (yep, read that right), I never thought he was "our guy." He's always been the rebuild coach. The concerns that I have are more about how his decisions impact the only forward that matters on this team, Connor Bedard.
The line changes have been ridiculous. It's been up and down the roster where players don't have time to build chemistry (besides the 4th line). The first line is where this is being impacted the most. And it's that line's role that hasn't been consistent either. Bedard shouldn't have to play in a shut-down role, even if it does work. And the numbers don't really say it did. The Bedard-Dickinson-Anderson line still allowed 16 shots on goal and gave up 12 scoring chances when they were on the ice. Why Joey Anderson should ever be on a first line is what's more perplexing.
Why do we care so much about developing Bedard's defensive game?
Davidson brought in a few players over the past 2 seasons who can play with Bedard. Taylor Hall, Teuvo Teravainen, and Tyle Bertuzzi. But Luke refuses to play Bedard with them despite the Foligno-Bedard-Teravainen line actually looking pretty damn good. That line had a 58.81 xG% with 84 minutes of ice time.
It's not that I think Richardson's system sucks. It's a simple system. It's not Jeremy Collitan's hybrid nightmare. Luke is very defensive-minded and maximizes the best defensive attribute his players provide.
My concern lies with Luke not maximizing the most of Bedard and the players who can play with him. Which there aren't many of.
He wasn't the one who signed the players. Kyle did.
Kyle
I'm not totally souring on him. But I am concerned about the players he brought on to help this team be more "competitive." But what is being more competitive?
If it means not finishing dead last, the Hawks are currently sitting at 32 and are on pace for 60 points, 8 points better than last year. The Hawks have a -13 goal differential, last season they were at an even 0 through 21 games.
For as vague as "being competitive" is, I have a strong feeling that what this team is currently doing doesn't meet that criteria. It's certainly not scoring goals. And this wasn't a surprise to the coaching staff either. Scoring was going to be a problem with this roster.
Now I don't know if Luke vetted for most of the players Kyle brought on. But if we're looking at Luke with critical eyes because this is his first season where he has "talent" to coach, we need to be just as critical with Kyle because he provided those players.
Finishing dead last isn't an issue for Kyle. He gets another shot at the lottery and we get a player who will be good for the team in the long term. Rebuilds take a while and the results of this season were never going to speed that process up.
I think where Kyle slipped up was telling the media that the Hawks were looking to take the "next step" and be more "competitive."
The other serious concern I have is Kyle's decision not to sign a center over the summer.
There was this fake narrative about fighting for spots in training camp and there was a center position for Frank Nazar to compete for. He's in Rockford developing. That was likely the plan anyway unless he blew the pants off of the NHL world in preseason. Sure, the market for centers wasn't great. But how does this happen? Why don't we have someone other than Jason Dickinson who can play center?
What next?
Well, we wait.
Luke doesn't have a roster that's constructed to be competitive. Kyle isn't sweating the record. He'll get a great shot in the draft lottery and get a prospect forward who will complement Bedard's game.
Realistically, there isn't anything to freak out over in the long term.
For the near term, there are some things to keep an eye on. How does Connor handle this slump and will he change anything about his game to get things going? How shot is the confidence of the locker room and when will these guys click?
We'll revisit the HAM around the Four Nations Faceoff.